This isn’t the corporate the Crimson Sox hoped they’d be retaining. Once they face off towards the Brewers tonight, they’ll be making an attempt to keep away from becoming a member of the Rockies, White Sox, Pirates, and Rays as the one groups in baseball with three separate dropping streaks of not less than 4 video games this season. Boston at the moment sits fourth within the AL East and a couple of 1/2 video games out of the ultimate Wild Card spot. In accordance with our playoff odds, the Crimson Sox have seen their postseason likelihood fall by greater than half since Opening Day, dropping from 56.2% to 25.3%. Solely the Braves, Orioles, and Rangers have had an even bigger decline.
Boston’s most up-to-date win additionally supplied its largest lack of the season to date. When Alex Bregman signed again in February, there was each purpose to imagine that the Inexperienced Monster could be his finest buddy. His sport is designed round lifting the ball to the pull aspect, and he’s already bounced 5 doubles and a single off the wall on the fly, to go along with three homers launched over it. However the Monster betrayed Bregman on Friday. Within the first sport of a would-be doubleheader towards the Orioles (the second sport was postponed, and Saturday turned a doubleheader as a substitute), Bregman scorched a single that short-hopped the wall, however as he chopped his steps to again off an aggressive flip, one thing seemed off.
“I used to be rounding first base and digging to go to second and I type of felt my quad seize, so I didn’t proceed operating to second base for the double,” Bregman stated. “I simply type of stopped and got here again to the bag so I wouldn’t make it any worse. After I felt it, I knew I wanted to come back out and see the coach.” Bregman left the sport with proper quad tightness, telling reporters that he initially feared that the damage is likely to be extra extreme, however that he felt extra optimistic after the sport and hoped he may keep away from an IL journey. “Hopefully, I sleep good and it feels nice,” he stated. “We’ll simply see the way it presents and take the subsequent step there, simply type of observe the coaching employees, their lead. However proper now, it’s simply quad tightness.”
Bregman didn’t sleep good. Ache from the quad saved him up through the night time, and an MRI on Saturday morning revealed a “fairly extreme” pressure. Bregman in contrast it to the left quad pressure he suffered in 2021. That pressure saved him out 69 days, from June 17 to April 25. In case the Crimson Sox are on the lookout for comfort, Bregman seemed like himself upon his return that season, operating 115 wRC+ earlier than the damage and a 112 wRC+ (with higher exit velocity numbers) after he got here again. However that’s chilly consolation. With a 160 wRC+ this season, Bregman has been the workforce’s finest participant, and he’ll be out for not less than two months.
It’s laborious to overstate how tough a blow that is for Bregman. His 2.5 WAR ranked eleventh amongst all place gamers. With a .404 wOBA, he was off to the very best begin of his whole profession on the plate. By enjoying so nicely, he was additionally giving himself an opportunity to train the primary opt-out in his three-year contract and get the possibility on the long-term deal that he’d needed all alongside. That might be off the desk now.
Dropping Bregman additionally put a damper on what ought to have been a celebration, because the workforce known as up Marcelo Mayer, the second member of its Massive Three prospects, to fill in. Mayer arrived at Fenway Park between video games on Saturday, pushed from Worcester to Boston by a clubhouse attendant. He misplaced his keys someplace on the ballpark three weeks earlier and “by no means cared to search for them till I wanted to.” So yeah, Mayer is unquestionably 22 years previous. He began at third base that night time, a place he had performed professionally simply six instances earlier than.
Mayer is a consensus top-100 prospect with professional energy. Within the post-spring coaching replace to our Prime 100 Prospects listing, Eric Longenhagen pegged him at quantity 30, on the high of the 50 future worth tier. When contemplating Mayer at present in mild of the call-up, Eric let me know that he’d upgraded Mayer to a 55 – which means Mayer went from the FV of an on a regular basis participant to an above-average common – and pushed him to 14th on the Board. Eric has generally been the low man on Mayer due to his issue dealing with tender stuff on the backside of the zone. Right here’s what he wrote again in February, when he ranked Mayer 57th:
All through his whole profession, he has carried out regardless of these points, however they proceed to terrify me. Marcelo’s entrance aspect is so upright all through his swing that it makes it almost not possible for him to dip and scoop tender stuff on the backside of the strike zone and under. He can completely button a fastball, however large league pitchers aren’t going to indicate him lots of these if he retains performing like he has towards secondaries. Simply how stark is the distinction? Mayer had an 87% contact fee towards fastballs final yr, and a 57% contact fee towards breaking balls.
Earlier than his call-up, Mayer was operating a 115 wRC+ at Triple-A Worcester, with a stroll fee above 10% and a strikeout fee under 20%. Nevertheless, a 115 wRC+ in Triple-A doesn’t translate to above-average efficiency within the majors, and we will additionally do a reasonably easy breakdown.
Marcelo Mayer’s 2025 Triple-A Splits
| Pitch Sort | wOBA | Contact% | Arduous-Hit% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastballs & Cutters | .397 | 81.9 | 53.8 |
| Every part Else | .300 | 67.6 | 38.9 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Mayer was a bit higher at shedding breaking and offspeed pitches in Worcester this season, which helped him make extra contact, nevertheless it’s very clearly nonetheless his weak spot. He had only a .222 wOBA towards offspeed stuff.
Mayer has a 54 wRC+ in his first three video games with the Crimson Sox, going 3-for-12 with a double, no walks, and three strikeouts. Up to now, 52.9% of the pitches he’s seen have been fastballs or cutters, only a few share factors under the league common. It’s a must to think about that fee will tick down some. “I don’t assume his points towards tender stuff are so unhealthy that he’s susceptible to busting,” Eric advised me, “however I do assume in some unspecified time in the future large league pitchers will power him to enhance towards them.” The ability is actual, although. Mentioned Eric, “If my grade finally ends up being mild and it seems he’s truly a constant All-Star, it’ll be due to how a lot energy he accesses on contact.”
As for his protection, Mayer is a shortstop by commerce, and he has additionally spent a small period of time at second. Eric put a forty five/50 grade on his protection. He doesn’t have nice vary or arm energy, however he’s acquired wonderful arms and actions, and that ought to give him an opportunity to stay on the place long run. Earlier than Bregman’s damage, shortstop was Boston’s main weak level. Since signing with the Crimson Sox forward of the 2022 season, Trevor Story hasn’t been capable of keep on the sector or carry out when he’s on it. He’s performed in 52 video games this season, already the second most of his tenure with the Crimson Sox, however as Jay Jaffe documented final week, Story has put up -0.2 WAR, due to a 62 wRC+ and ugly defensive metrics. Mayer did play some quick on Sunday, as Boston gave Story the day without work within the hopes that he may reset himself.
Even earlier than the season began, it was clear that the Crimson Sox wanted a plan for relieving Story of his duties, and Mayer it. Though he’d by no means been fully dominant, he’d hit at each cease of the minors, his ascent slowed solely by a sequence of nagging accidents. This season, he was hitting nicely in Worcester, however not nicely sufficient to power the problem. He most likely may have used extra time, however Bregman’s damage pressured the problem for him, and its severity possible implies that Mayer might be enjoying daily whether or not he’s prepared or not. If he can’t maintain his head above water, Bregman’s damage may very well be the defining characteristic of the Crimson Sox’ season.
The damage provides one other layer of intrigue to a Boston infield that has seen far an excessive amount of of it in latest months. Rafael Devers could be the plain candidate to fill in at third base, the place he’s held down for the Crimson Sox ever for the reason that workforce known as him up in July 2017, however supervisor Alex Cora has made it clear that that gained’t occur. It’s been roughly three weeks since first baseman Triston Casas went down with a ruptured patella tendon, reigniting the firestorm of controversy that began again in February. To recap: The Crimson Sox had been adamant that Devers would keep at third base it doesn’t matter what, then requested him to maneuver to DH two days after signing Bregman. A damage Devers refused and went to the media, then backed down and have become the very best DH within the American League. When Casas acquired damage, the Sox requested Devers to study first base on the fly; he as soon as once more refused and went public. They went as far as to usher in proprietor John Henry to speak Devers down, however publicly not less than, there have been no additional developments. On Saturday, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote that Devers hadn’t taken grounders in three weeks.
Within the meantime, Kristian Campbell has been practising at first base, although the workforce says he gained’t be able to play there any time quickly. To make issues worse, Campbell has seemed misplaced on the plate. After making the Opening Day roster regardless of ugly spring coaching numbers, Campbell began his main league profession on a tear and shortly signed an eight-year extension. He charged out of the gate with a 17-game on-base streak and ran a 163 wRC+ by way of April 29. Since April 30, although, Campbell has a wRC+ of -26, with simply eight hits in 19 video games. His stroll fee has dropped by roughly 14 share factors, and his strikeout fee has climbed by 4. His protection has additionally graded out very poorly, particularly in keeping with DRS, which has him at -8, tied for fourth worst amongst all gamers, no matter place.
In all, the Crimson Sox have gotten a best-in-baseball 2.8 WAR from their third base place, to go along with -0.5 from the opposite infield spots, third worst within the majors. Bregman was singlehandedly retaining the infield in the midst of the pack, however with out him, the filth is a gaping black gap. Boston has additionally been very vocal about its intention to maintain Masataka Yoshida on the IL till his shoulder is wholesome sufficient that he can throw with none restrictions, even though he’s able to hit now, he’s not defender, and there’s no area for him within the outfield anyway. In different phrases, even when the workforce had been prepared to let Devers play third for the subsequent couple months – shifting Campbell to first and Mayers to second – it wouldn’t make a lot of a distinction as a result of with out Yoshida, it wouldn’t have a greater bat to insert into the lineup at DH.
For now, the Crimson Sox might be relying closely on Mayer and Campbell, two 22-year-old rookies with all of 210 large league plate appearances between them. Everybody who pays consideration to the Crimson Sox spent your entire offseason questioning when Campbell, Mayer, and naturally Roman Anthony would make their approach to the intense lights and massive expectations of Fenway Park. After ready impatiently for years, the long run has come rather more out of the blue than anybody would have favored.
