In 2024, after an damage to Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana was the Mets’ Opening Day starter, dealing with the Brewers. Now, after an inventory of accidents that’s manner too lengthy for an introduction paragraph, Quintana can be becoming a member of the Brewers rotation. On Monday, the Brewers and the 36-year-old left-hander agreed to a one-year deal value $4.25 million. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the deal, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand broke the contract phrases. Because the Mets signed former Brewer Frankie Montas in December, the 2 groups are successfully performing their very own second-hand pitcher swap.
Quintana’s deal, reminiscent of it’s, makes it the big-money transaction of the offseason for the Brewers. It’s positively not sufficient to make followers overlook about proprietor Mark Attanasio’s current feedback: “Is my job to win a World Sequence,” he mentioned, “or is my job to offer a summer time of leisure and keenness and a manner for households to come back collectively?” (Not that it’s the purview of this specific article, however the reply to each questions, after all, is sure.) Till yesterday, Milwaukee’s priciest addition was a $1 million deal for reliever Tyler Alexander, however the crew’s largest transfer of the offseason remains to be the one which despatched nearer Devin Williams to the Yankees in trade for one yr of lefty starter Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin. Christmas solely comes every year in Milwaukee.
Let’s circle again to the accidents I discussed. The Brewers can be beginning the season with out ace Brandon Woodruff, who’s recovering from shoulder surgical procedure, DL Corridor, who suffered a lat pressure a couple of weeks in the past, Robert Gasser, who underwent Tommy John surgical procedure in June, and Aaron Ashby, whose indirect pressure was simply introduced Monday. Its severity remains to be to be decided by an MRI. You see why I couldn’t put all that within the second sentence? All which means that Quintana can be becoming a member of ace Freddy Peralta, Cortes, Aaron Civale, and Tobias Myers within the doubtless Opening Day rotation.
I volunteered to put in writing this text as a result of I additionally wrote up Quintana’s two-year take care of the Mets again in December 2022, and I used to be inquisitive about what might need modified. Again then, he was 34 and coming off a considerably out-of-nowhere four-win season with a 2.93 ERA, principally due to an enormous drop in his dwelling run charge. Over the primary 10 years of his profession, he’d allowed 0.96 dwelling runs per 9 innings, however in 2022, that charge fell by greater than half, all the way in which to 0.43. As a regression candidate, he appeared just like the world’s surest factor. A benign lesion on his rib that necessitated bone graft surgical procedure restricted him to 13 begins in 2023, and over that brief pattern, his dwelling run charge stayed down, however it bounced all the way in which again in 2024. Though he’s run a 3.70 ERA over the previous two seasons, the superior estimators are smelling blood: His 4.24 FIP and 4.45 xFIP are the very best for any two-year stretch of his profession.
For probably the most half, the superior estimators are merely objecting to the ravages of time. (ERA estimators: They’re similar to us!) Quintana’s fastballs lastly settled in under 91 mph, which allowed batters to make extra contact together with his four-seamer, particularly contact of the barreled selection. So he reduce his four-seamer charge and backfilled with sinkers, which saved his groundball charge good and glossy however crushed his popup charge. The diminished velocity additionally pressured Quintana to be finer together with his pitches. The warmth maps under present his four-seamer. The one on the left combines 2021 and 2022, whereas the one on the appropriate combines 2023 and 2024.
Quintana has at all times tried to raise the pitch to his glove-side nook, however he additionally used to search for whiffs down the center or above the zone. Now that he’s not getting the chases or whiffs, he’s simply aiming for the nook. Quintana’s edge charge – the share of pitches which might be inside one ball-width of the sting of the strike zone – has risen in every successive season since 2019.
None of those modifications did something to assist his already low strikeout charge, and it made the trail to success extra tenuous. It’s simply robust when the margin for error is that small. It’s not like this can be a new story. Quintana is 36, and though he’s by no means had the speed to blow batters away, there’s not any doubt that he’s absolutely transitioned from common lefty to artful lefty.
Clearly, Quintana’s not afraid to make modifications, tweaking his pitch combine, his places, and even the pitches themselves. In 2024, he killed a bit rise and added a bit additional arm-side run to his changeup, main the pitching fashions to enhance its score from “Please God, No” all the way in which as much as “[Sigh] If You Should.” What extra might he do, except for hop in a time machine? A part of me, understanding that the Brewers ranked fourth in baseball in cutter charge final yr and seeing the massive hole in motion between his four-seamer and his breaking pitches, thinks that Quintana can be a great candidate for a cutter. However one other a part of me thinks that including an 86-mph pitch with eight inches of rise and just about no horizontal break in any respect can be be about as efficient as wheeling a pitching machine up onto the mound.
As Jay Jaffe famous final week when he wrote up the finest pitchers nonetheless in the marketplace, Quintana struggled mightily for many of the season, then fully turned issues round, starting on August 20. Over his final seven begins, he posted a 0.74 ERA, 2.48 FIP, and three.52 xFIP, all of which represented enormous enhancements on his numbers to that time. The most important modifications to his stats over that ultimate scorching stretch? Quintana stranded 89% of his baserunners, didn’t permit a single homer, and ran a 62% groundball charge. Clearly, the primary two gadgets on that listing aren’t precisely repeatable, however Quintana’s fastball velocity additionally ticked again as much as 91.4 mph over that ultimate stretch, and never coincidentally, he began throwing extra pitches within the zone and fewer over the sting. Even when the Brewers didn’t imagine in another a part of Quintana’s closing run, the speed spike, and the way in which he pitched when he as soon as once more had confidence in his heaters, should have been a giant purpose for his or her resolution to take an opportunity on him.
The final level is a enjoyable one: If Quintana’s aim was to maintain beating his FIP, he couldn’t have picked a sweeter touchdown spot. His excessive groundball charge ought to play simply advantageous in Milwaukee. 12 months in yr out, the Brewers have probably the greatest defenses in baseball. Though they misplaced shortstop Willy Adames, if Joey Ortiz takes over for him like we count on, he would possibly even signify an enchancment on the place. There’s no approach to understand how a lot Quintana has left within the tank, or whether or not his elevated velocity towards the tip of the season was a mirage, however so long as he retains it on the bottom, he’ll have an opportunity.
