Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/3/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, I’m beginning the chat a bit of early right this moment. I’ve a canine coaching session round 11:45 (ish), and I’ll squeeze out on a regular basis I can earlier than then, however plan on me bailing shortly after I get a 5 minute warning or so

Ben Clemens: Within the meantime, let’s reply some questions on baseball. And board video games, since I see one within the queue already

Some kinda Mook: Additionally, my spouse and I’ve performed by means of nearly the entire Baker Road Irregulars pack in Sherlock Holmes: Consulting detective. Actually enjoyable! Thanks for the advice like a yr in the past!

Ben Clemens: Wonderful, I’m glad you prefer it. We simply performed a Sherlock a couple of weeks in the past. We’ve been on an Azul and Cascadia kick just lately, each of which stay nice

Some kinda Mook: Ben, who ya obtained over the following 5 years: Yordan or Vlad?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, Yordan by a mile

Mike: Outdoors of the White Sox ending final, would any order within the AL Central standings shock you?

Ben Clemens: Agreed, that’s the one factor that feels particular

Ben Clemens: The remainder of the groups are actually evenly matched. Additionally, all of them have fairly well-defined weaknesses, so it’ll be simple to enhance on the deadline if that appeals to any of them

Ben Clemens: Ought to make for a really enjoyable race

Birdsong: Final yr round this time, Hayden Birdsong was the #17 prospect within the Giants group. Then he added the kick change and nearly instantly turned a high 50 general prospect. Would you say that he was being undervalued within the unique report, or is the kick change simply that a lot of a recreation changer? (I do know there’s been a ton of articles praising the pitch.) Additionally, what’s Birdsong’s future outlook like?

Ben Clemens: I believe it’s most likely many issues all collectively. Pitching prospects are notoriously powerful to get a deal with on, to start with, as my analysis into prospect grades confirmed

Ben Clemens: I believe that makes normal sense as a result of single pitches generally — not at all times however generally — utterly change the outlook for a man

Ben Clemens: I believe that on reflection, he was most likely underrated, however I believe that occurs with plenty of pitchers

Ben Clemens: The changeup is sweet, and I imply, he’s at all times had many plus pitches. The larger situation has been command, and properly, he walked 14% of main leaguers he confronted

Ben Clemens: I’d mainly say he’s overrated now, however in a ‘you may by no means inform if pitchers will develop command’ manner

Alby: “Yordan by a mile” even with the larger harm danger? I fear a few Tony Olive/Rico Carty state of affairs with these knees.

Ben Clemens: Folks have fearful about that day by day since Yordan debuted

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying there’s no danger

Ben Clemens: From 2021-2024, so together with Vlad’s two spike years, Yordan has racked up 2290 PA, 165 wrC+. Vlad has 2783 PA, 145 wRC+

Ben Clemens: Yordan’s been price comfortably extra whereas enjoying much less time, and we’re selecting the pattern to flatter Vlad there

Corbin Barrels: Bummed about Carroll getting pulled early, however he’s been hitting some absolute moonshots throughout the Cactus League; is it “simply Spring”, or how a lot ought to I purchase into the continuation of final half-season’s energy surge?

Ben Clemens: I believe it relies on what you imply by surge

Ben Clemens: One factor I be ok with, regardless of what each Carroll and the group have been saying, is that one thing slowed him down and made him produce meaningfully much less energy late in ’23 and early in ’24

Ben Clemens: Damage? fatigue? On condition that group and participant aren’t giving something away, I can’t actually speculate. However I believe that Carroll’s uncooked energy is actual, and I purchase early ’23/late ’24 greater than the hole within the center the place he obtained very slap-hitter-y

wheelhouse: is there gonna be an odd man out in KC’s infield? perhaps i’m unsuitable however it looks like a very odd use of assets to commerce singer for india after which shuffle india thus far down the defensive spectrum that he’s in LF/DH territory the place his bat isn’t distinctive. massey or garcia on the commerce block?

Ben Clemens: I imply…. have you ever seen the opposite gamers KC is contemplating utilizing at LF/DH?

Ben Clemens: Royals LF’s had a 75 wRC+ final yr

Ben Clemens: DH’s have been at 77, and that’s together with 200 PA of Salvy and Vinnie P enjoying DH

Ben Clemens: His bat just isn’t distinctive in comparison with all DH’s and LF’s. However in comparison with Kansas Metropolis’s different choices? It’s an enormous enchancment

diadem: How involved are you about Steer’s harm?

Ben Clemens: mmmm…. I need to see some outcomes earlier than I alter my analysis

Ben Clemens: I didn’t suppose Steer seemed bothered by harm in ’24

Ben Clemens: However I hardly watched each recreation

Ben Clemens: shoulder accidents are at all times scary. however till I see some proof that it’s bothering him, I’m keen to present it the good thing about the doubt

Ben Clemens: Now that we’ve swing pace information from the second half of 2023, I can say issues like “Steer’s swing pace, fee of quick swings, and barrel fee didn’t budge in 2024, so harm most likely didn’t sluggish his bat”

Ben Clemens: Kinda cool to have the ability to try this

comish4lif: Is there anyplace right here at FG that initiatives enjoying time by share? For instance, for the Rockies, what’s the % breakdown for somebody like Hunter Goodman at C/1B/OF/DH?

Ben Clemens: It’s there, in our depth charts, however you’d have to tug the info out your self ot see the cut up that manner

Ben Clemens: You possibly can see the enjoying time at every place after which do the mathematics your self

Jim: Over/beneath .500 file for the A’s in 2025?

Ben Clemens: I imply, I’ll take the beneath. Vegas has them round 72, so

Ben Clemens: That mentioned, I had the over final yr, and that was a cakewalk

Ben Clemens: it was like… 58? one thing wild

Ben Clemens: I do just like the A’s fairly a bit relative to that line, nonetheless, as does our mannequin

Ben Clemens: However I’d have it within the 75-80 vary, mainly

Eli: Given the worth of marginal wins to the Yankees, why are they not getting an actual third baseman?

Ben Clemens: I’m unsure, to be trustworthy. I believe that their dedication to a strict price range is a bit stronger than I anticipated, mainly

Ben Clemens: However I agree, it does really feel a bit of bizarre to have a group that appears one hitter brief

RP: Campbell or Holliday?

Ben Clemens: I’m on Campbell. I can’t shake the “I don’t see how this can work” vibes with Holliday

Ben Clemens: I’m unsuitable on a regular basis on issues like this, clearly. The consensus of evaluators and fashions tends to be fairly good, significantly better than my instinct

Ben Clemens: However look, I’ve been decrease than consensus on Holliday for fairly some time, and taking flak for it proper up till individuals requested me how I might have guessed it

Ben Clemens: so I’ll simply say, eh, one thing about his recreation feels off to me, although I can’t put my finger on it. Gimme Campbell, whose recreation is extra of a thriller to me

Insert Witty Title Right here: I’ve been coming to your chats since nevertheless lengthy you’ve been right here however I’ve by no means really seen what you appear to be. I think about you trying like a typical tech bro.  How far off am I?

Ben Clemens: I imply, you’re not utterly unsuitable, though I put on a FanGraphs hoodie as an alternative of some startup you’ve by no means heard of

Ben Clemens: Beard, grey hair I don’t trouble to dye, and so on. SF does have a mode

Ralph: Do you sense a Volpe breakout coming? The bat pace features look actual

Ben Clemens: Yeah however equally, I’m at all times seeing a Volpe breakout

Ben Clemens: I’ve predicted 3 of the final 0 Volpe breakouts

Ben Clemens: I believe that his model of protection plus bat management tends to play, and that the probabilities of an enormous Jose Ramirez model energy spike are typically underestimated for guys like him, so I’m a purchaser

Ben Clemens: however like…. as a rule, gamers don’t turn out to be Jose Ramirez

Holliday: Is having Holliday on my fantasy roster in 2025 a yr or two too quickly? (In distinction, ARod outplayed Holliday within the MLB at a youthful age.)

Ben Clemens: For all my pessimism on Holliday, I’m not saying he can’t work

Ben Clemens: all these views are simply probabilistic

Ben Clemens: I’m extra of a fantasy soccer participant than baseball participant b/c it simply feels too near my precise day job, however in fantasy sports activities normally, I believe that having a superb quantity of youth and upside in your roster typically pays off

Ben Clemens: so like, even when the expectation is low, the tails look good. I’m not saying break the financial institution, however typically talking, betting on hype works out higher than it has any enterprise doing

RH: Does the MLB have the center to play a preseason sequence within the Taipei Dome? The WBC qualies have been superb, particularly in comparison with the tasteless Spring Coaching really feel of the Tucson bracket

Ben Clemens: No manner is my guess

Ben Clemens: I don’t have any inside information on that, however Taiwan just isn’t a world sports activities vacation spot, and uh, no factors for guessing why

Insert Witty Title Right here: revisiting a commerce from 2019 – Curtis Mead for Christopher Sanchez.  How do you’re feeling about that 6 years later now that we see them within the bigs?

Ben Clemens: Gotta love when trades work out for everybody is my view

Ben Clemens: I believe each groups are most likely fairly proud of what went down

Drey Jameson: Drey is trying fairly good thus far, getting up over 100 mph together with his 4S. He’s even displaying rather more really feel for his Slider than you’d count on from any person getting back from TJ; do you suppose the DBacks attempt to run him out as a MIRP, or is he strictly SIRP for now?

Ben Clemens: I believe they’ll go SIRP, perhaps with some longer and fewer frequent outings within the second half

Ben Clemens: Given their enviable rotation depth, I believe they’ll take the lengthy view, and I concur with that plan

Kevin: Folks appear to be very enthusiastic about Jordan Westburg, however I see some plate self-discipline points. What are your ideas on him?

Ben Clemens: Oh, I’m very in. I additionally don’t suppose it’s plate self-discipline, precisely. He looks like he is aware of what he’s doing on the plate and is simply aggressive. He has some swing-and-miss, although

Ben Clemens: I believe that may most likely at all times be in his recreation. His swing could be very aggressive

Ben Clemens: However I believe that his model of aggression is one that usually performs properly

Bosoxforlife: Buehler seemed good within the post-season final yr and yesterday he was spectacular. Do you suppose he might be the pitcher he was and if he’s do the Crimson Sox win the AL East?

Ben Clemens: I believed Buehler was an awesome danger by the Sox

Ben Clemens: can he be the pitcher he was? for positive. And I believe that it’s extra doubtless than the contract he signed would suggest

Ben Clemens: One of many higher signings of the offseason imo, significantly within the ‘low-cost however good upside’ bracket

Ben Clemens: like, the most effective signing, for me, was Soto. it’s good to lock up a possible corridor of famer for a decade. However that’s not likely what we’re speaking about right here

Henry Dodger: Quintana simply signing with the Brewers jogs my memory that Blackburn and Canning are doubtless beginning the season within the NYM rotation. Even with Manaea doubtless again early and Sproat seemingly near the bigs, this isn’t optimum, is it?

Ben Clemens: I imply, it’s not nice. I believe that the group is about as much as deal with it in the event that they don’t have another accidents. But when I have been them, I’d be attempting to seize yet one more pitcher as a stopgap

Jim: I’ve learn that Jacob Wilson added muscle this low season. However I by no means know what’s actuality or simply “greatest form of his life” rubbish. Is there any signal he’s developed extra energy/capability to drive the ball?

Ben Clemens: Not likely a lot method to see thus far. He has 14 tracked batted balls in spring coaching

Ben Clemens: additionally, spring coaching is at all times bizarre

Ben Clemens: however it’s definitely one thing I’ll be maintaining a tally of. He’s an intriguing participant

Ben Clemens: The A’s have traditionally been very into these better-game-than-raw-power guys

Ben Clemens: Esteury Ruiz was the apple of their eye after he had his wild slug-without-pop season within the minors

Ben Clemens: That provides me pause with Wilson, however I actually WANT to consider he can have an effect. My fashions all love him

Visitor: ideas on ivan herrera? his 127 wRC+ for a 24 y/o catcher (with statcast that backs it up) was spectacular

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe that the Playing cards’ normal disfunction across the catcher place obscured what a superb season he had. I do know he wants some work behind the plate however I believe that they’ll give that to him this yr, significantly with Contreras shifting. The Playing cards have had plenty of ‘subsequent nice catching prospect’s over time… perhaps Herrera is the one to hit

Ben Clemens: no offense, however Pedro Pages undoubtedly isn’t it, regardless of how a lot the group likes his protection

Jordan Lawlar: To the “greatest form” cliches, Lawlar confirmed as much as camp noticeably bulked up; is that essentially perfect, contemplating he’s already a 60 uncooked/70 pace type of man with out the added mass?

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a robust view right here, as a result of I’m not a kinesiologist or something. I believe {that a} sensible transfer is to not purchase these tales an excessive amount of and give attention to how the gamers carry out as soon as video games begin

Ben Clemens: greatest form of their life is simply so usually uncorrelated to efficiency

Bosoxforlife: As I watch a really giant, in each manner, a part of the AL East puzzle is making his first look since 2023. As Felix Bautista throws his first pitch, then blows Trayce Thompson away, his presence makes the Orioles pitching look so much higher.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, big information for the O’s. Their bullpen state of affairs was not nice final yr, even with them spending cash to herald Kimbrel

Ben Clemens: I’m trying ahead to listening to Omar’s whistle in a number of video games this yr

Henry Dodger: Which group is prone to beat their preseason wins projection by the largest quantity? I’m guessing the Crimson Sox. Who would you select?

Ben Clemens: Oh, this can be a enjoyable one. I believe I’ll take the Guardians, really, as a result of our mannequin has them at 78 and that appears shocking to me. However relative to market strains? Perhaps the Giants. Under .500 implied, and that provides them an honest quantity of upside

Alby: “No offense, however Pedro Pages undoubtedly isn’t it.” I see what you probably did there.

Ben Clemens: Man, I didn’t even imply it

Visitor: “Playing cards’ normal disfunction across the catcher place” stays a little bit of a humorous factor to me. Trigger I agree with you re the notion of the Cardinals catchers and their defensive points (which appears to evoke much more handwringing contained in the org than exterior of it)

However Cardinals catchers have been the third greatest unit in MLB final yr by fWAR (although nonetheless within the backside half by complete DEF)

Ben Clemens: let me put it this fashion — the gamers is likely to be good, however the group habits round them isn’t

Ben Clemens: it doesn’t have a lot to do with Contreras and Herrera. Definitely nothing to do with Pages, who’s a superbly acceptable backup

Ben Clemens: It has to do with the group continuously speaking like they hate their catchers, after which doing bizarre issues like giving every of Pages, Herrera, and Contreras equal enjoying time although their WAR broke down 0.5/1.9/2.5 on the catcher place

Scouting: To what extent do the instruments have an effect on one another? For instance, let’s say there are two gamers who you already know for a truth are similar hitters, besides one has 80 pace and the opposite has 20. In case you seemed on the floor degree, the sooner participant could have higher stats, since he’ll get extra infield hits and further bases. However would you give them the identical grades for his or her hitting?

Ben Clemens: I can solely reply for me, however for me, instruments have an effect on one another

Ben Clemens: like, recreation energy and hit software are so correlated

Geraldo Perdomo: That is most likely an odd query, however how do bunts work together with Common Exit velocity? Does a participant that often bunts look worse by avg EV and LA? Gamers like Perdomo and McCarthy have at all times had me questioning…

Ben Clemens: I can’t communicate for everybody, however each I and the baseball savant default exclude bunts

Ben Clemens: There’s a bit of flag for it within the search

Ben Clemens: Mathematically talking: with out bunts, Perdomo was at 87 mph EV and McCarthy at 84.5 in 2024. Add within the bunts, and so they drop to 84.2 and 81.8

jimmy: Is SF making a mistake with their rotation? You have got Webb after which 4/5 guys that you don’t have any thought what you’re getting from them.

Ben Clemens: I’m really type of into it. The minor league choices as replacements are fairly good. Birdsong, Beck from the bullpen, Roupp, I believe Mason Black is kinda enjoyable, numerous Carsons

Jim: What does Zack Gelof must do to bounce again on the plate this yr?

Ben Clemens: Make a bit of extra contact. He had the bottom contact fee amongst certified gamers final yr. Like…. worse than Oneil Cruz, Adolis Garcia in his worst yr, Elly, Ezequiel Tovar

Ben Clemens: He’s by no means going to be an excellent excessive contact fee man — however he must be dangerous, not terrible

ppenayr: why should the pirates frequently disappoint me, one legit bat in that the center of that lineup and so they might compete.

Ben Clemens: I actually don’t get it

Ben Clemens: It’s so discouraging to see them win the lottery with Skenes, after which simply kinda ignore it

Alex Anthopoulos: Am I formally regretting the Murphy commerce, now that he’s going to overlook 4 to six weeks?

Ben Clemens: if 4-6 weeks is gonna change that, you most likely have your priorities a bit of unsuitable

Ben Clemens: I imply, if the Braves might eitehr try this commerce once more or not, they wouldn’t. However remorse it? I don’t suppose so. I believe it was a wise swap, and I believe that even in a bad-ish case (Contreras higher than anticipated, Murphy worse than anticipated) they nonetheless obtained plenty of worth out of it

Jb: What are your ideas on Eduard Julien this yr? The Ty France signing was odd

Ben Clemens: Julien is a man I’m simply going to guess on eternally. I actually purchase the skillset. I agree that France cuts down on his PT — however they are often platoon companions, and actually Julien’s going to offer you much more juice if he can faux second than if he performs first. I believe that he’ll get loads of time to given the overall brittle nature of Minnesota’s greatest gamers

Vader: Hello Ben!  What one or two metrics are your private favorites for shortly evaluating hitters and pitchers?

Ben Clemens: Oh hm, enjoyable query

Ben Clemens: I believe that barrel fee is only a nice one-off for understanding hitters. It’s important to take a look at their different stats too, however it gives actually helpful context. “Does the ball explode off the bat” is one thing all of us use after we watch individuals in actual life. I believe that one statistic to elucidate that’s about nearly as good because it will get for a fast take a look at of hitters

Ben Clemens: re: pitchers, it’s kinda tacky however swinging strike fee

Ben Clemens: a lot stuff that pitchers do is tough to tease out. Do their pitches work off of one another? Do they tip cdertain ones? Are they tiring out early? Do they want extra choices for after they don’t have the platoon benefit? It’s important to watch guys for a very long time to know the solutions to these questions

Ben Clemens: “Can batters hit the ball?” is far simpler to measure and doubtless extra necessary for efficiency, although

Ben Clemens: so barrel fee and swinging strike fee, if I needed to decide just one stat for every. However the nice half about baseball is you can decide a ton of stats, if you wish to

Jim: Why is Shea Langeliers so dangerous at framing and blocking pitches? He had a popularity as a defensive catching prospectCan he enhance?

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a superb asnwer for you right here. Hey, he’s a superb thrower

Ben Clemens: Truthfully, he’s not a disastrous receiver or something

Ben Clemens: Usually talking, although,catcher defnsive popularity has a ton to do with throwing, and he’s nice at it

Tom: Do you utilize Ok-BB% or CSW% to complement whiff fee for pitchers, or do these have too many different variables at play (as an example, chase/BB charges in low-mid minors are inherently a lot worse)?

Ben Clemens: I imply, positive. I’m type of skeptical of CSW simply because I haven’t had a ton of luck getting it to work with the best way I take into consideration pitchers. I’d favor simply strikeout fee at that time

Ben Clemens: as a result of I really feel like known as strikes are so variable of their distribution amongst counts primarily based on who the pitcher is that CSW finally ends up fairly noisy

Ben Clemens: however Ok-BB is clearly a greater statistic in the long term than swinging strike fee, as a result of it captures extra of what makes a pitcher good

Ben Clemens: not strolling individuals is sweet, and that doesn’t present up straight in swinging strike fee (it does a bit of b/c a stroll requires 4 pitches somebody didn’t swing at, however that’s oblique)

Ben Clemens: simply, it’s noisier, and I’d slightly take a look at swinging strike fee over a small pattern to know if I ought to be listening to a man

Henry Dodger: Is Gerrit Cole nonetheless elite?

Ben Clemens: Our projections suppose he’s not, although – they’ve him because the twenty sixth greatest pitcher

Ben Clemens: I’d have him within the 10-15 vary, which to me continues to be elite

Tim: I’ve been. Doing my studying on Yoniel Curet. Don’t see an excessive amount of ink about him. Does he have a shot on the Rays’ rotation this yr, and if that’s the case, how excessive on him can we be?

Ben Clemens: He’s in our preseason high 100 and obtained an enormous writeup there:

Ben Clemens: I’d say he undoubtedly has a shot – that writeup notes we predict a mid-2025 debut

Ben Clemens: how excessive on him can we be if he cracks the rotation? Nicely, contingent on him cracking a superb rotation, he’s most likely higher than our projections. And on condition that he has big stuff and extra of a stroll situation, I believe {that a} world the place he’s within the rotation as a significant league starter implies he’s nice. His stuff would already play within the bigs, imo

Ben Clemens: Okay, canine coach is right here, in order promised, I’m making a fast exit, thanks for all of the questions and discuss to everybody once more quickly. Baseball is coming!

Tacoby Bellsbury: What was the very last thing you listened to that made you go, “Hmm, I must test extra of this out?”

Ben Clemens: Ooh final second one. Chappell Roan is nice