Welcome again to a different preseason version of Hitter Profiles! Thus far, we’ve lined our Breakouts and Busts. This week, we’re diving deeper into the draft pool, trying to find these low cost choices with upside in any other case often called a sleeper! For our functions, we’ll outline a sleeper as a participant going after choose 250—roughly translating to Spherical 20 or later in 12-team leagues. These are the gamers who received’t price you a lot on draft day however may ship important returns if issues break their manner. Whether or not it’s a younger participant on the verge of a breakout, a platoon bat profiting from his alternatives, or an injury-prone participant who simply wants to remain on the sphere, we’re searching for hidden gems who may outperform their draft place. Figuring out the appropriate sleepers may be the distinction between a very good fantasy season and a fantastic one. So, let’s dig in and uncover some late-round gold with this week’s version of Hitter Profiles!
Connor Norby (ADP 272)
It certain seems to be just like the Marlins received a steal within the Trevor Rogers deal ultimately 12 months’s commerce deadline. Norby enters the 2025 season with eligibility at each second and third base in lots of leagues and is penciled into the Marlins’ lineup as their No. 2 hitter. Final season, in 45 video games, Norby hit 9 homers and stole three bases whereas posting a .236 common with a 33% strikeout fee. These numbers aren’t otherworldly, however as a rookie, he held his personal on the main league degree. Trying deeper into his underlying metrics, Norby posted an elite 14.8% barrel fee and constantly put the ball within the air to maximise his energy. Nevertheless, his anticipated batting common (xBA) sat at .228, and his 86.2 mph common exit velocity was underwhelming, making a blended profile.
The most important consider Norby’s favor is his clear path to taking part in time and his maturity as a prospect. Shifting out of Baltimore was doubtless one of the best factor for him, making certain he will get a professional probability to translate his minor league success to the majors. Throughout his 2024 Triple-A season, Norby hit .293 with 17 homers and 13 steals in simply 94 video games. All through his minor league profession, he has constantly proven 25–30 dwelling run potential. Whereas that energy could not absolutely translate within the large leagues, 20+ homers is properly inside purpose. On the velocity facet, Norby boasts 94th-percentile dash velocity and averaged 17 steals per full minor league season. With an ADP that locations him because the twenty fourth third baseman off the board, there’s a lot to love about grabbing him late in drafts.
Lars Nootbaar (ADP 260)
Nootbaar could also be finest recognized for his contributions to Group Japan within the 2023 World Baseball Traditional somewhat than his main league manufacturing. Coming into his age-27 season, he has but to determine himself as a full-time contributor, topping out at 117 video games performed in 2023. Final season, Nootbaar put collectively a pedestrian line of 12 homers, seven steals, and a .244 common. However heading into 2025, he possesses an intriguing talent set that has but to totally flourish on the large league degree. Let’s break it down with some assist from our Statcast buddies.
At the start, Nootbaar’s defining power is his method on the plate. His pitch choice and talent to attract walks rank among the many finest within the league, making him a primary candidate for constructive regression. That disciplined method helps him generate high quality contact, and in 2024, he ranked within the high 15% of MLB in each exit velocity and hard-hit fee. It’s not nearly hitting the ball laborious as he additionally makes high quality contact, evidenced by his anticipated batting common (xBA) of .264. That implies some professional upside if he merely regresses towards the imply. Statcast comparisons put him in the identical vary as Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, and William Contreras, three gamers who’re fairly respectable in case you have been watching. There’s a ton to love about Nootbaar, and he’s considered one of my favourite late-round picks over guys like Jesús Sánchez or Jake McCarthy getting into the identical vary. That is a straightforward purchase.
Pavin Smith (ADP 445)
Going off the board alongside names like Starling Marte and Freddy Fermin, Pavin Smith is an afterthought in most early 2025 fantasy drafts. A former No. 7 general choose in 2017, Smith has but to dwell as much as that pedigree, bouncing between the majors and minors over the previous few years. In 2024, he delivered one other sturdy Triple-A marketing campaign, hitting .318 with 13 homers throughout 62 video games though probably boosted by Reno’s hitter-friendly atmosphere. The actual purpose to take discover is how Smith carried out as soon as he was referred to as up and given constant taking part in time in September. Throughout the last month of the season, Smith hit six homers, drove in 19 runs, and posted a .290 common with a wRC+ of 183. Once we look below the hood, Statcast helps this breakout.
Over the total season, Smith improved throughout the board in key metrics, together with exit velocity, barrel fee, hard-hit fee, and xBA. Most notably, he was pulling the ball 41% of the time (up from his profession 36% fee) whereas reducing his chase fee by 5 proportion factors. These changes led to his sturdy September, the place he posted a 24% barrel fee highlighted by a three-homer recreation. Smith stays on the sturdy facet of a platoon, however along with his improved method and a spot in 2024’s highest scoring lineup, there’s professional 25-homer potential right here. At his present value, he’s a steal.
Trevor Larnach (ADP 389)
One other participant in a possible platoon, Trevor Larnach made important strides on the plate in 2024. Most notably, he slashed his strikeout fee from 34% in 2023 to 22.3% in 2024—a large enchancment. The important thing driver? Elevated contact charges, notably within the strike zone, the place his contact fee jumped from 75.5% to 84.7%. Whereas that’s simply barely above common, when paired along with his energy, it makes for an attractive fantasy profile. Talking of energy, Larnach additionally elevated his common exit velocity by practically two full mph, ending at 92 mph placing him in the identical vary as Elly De La Cruz and Brent Rooker. After hitting 15 homers in 112 video games final season, it’s simple to see how he may surpass 20 in 2025.
With Max Kepler transferring to Philadelphia and Alex Kirilloff retiring, Larnach’s path to taking part in time seems to be clearer than ever. He’s projected to hit third within the Twins’ lineup, and given the harm considerations surrounding Byron Buxton and the uncertainty round younger gamers like José Miranda and Matt Wallner, there’s little purpose for Minnesota to restrict his taking part in time. There’s particular sleeper enchantment and possibly full breakout potential for a participant being drafted alongside names like Jacob Younger and Dylan Moore. Go get him.
