
Because the reliever market picked up over the past week, two right-handers, each former closers, discovered new properties within the Central divisions. First, final Wednesday, Paul Sewald agreed to a one-year take care of the Cleveland Guardians. Then, on Sunday, Ryan Pressly waived his no-trade clause to ensure that the Houston Astros to ship him to the Chicago Cubs for the ultimate assured 12 months of his contract.
Whereas each of those pitchers are possible previous their peaks by way of stuff, they’ll look to proceed being contributors with their new golf equipment. Let’s look at the potential influence of those strikes and focus on how the 2 pitchers will match into the bullpens of their new groups.
Sewald Joins Elite Cleveland Bullpen
Coming off a down 12 months relative to his earlier three seasons, Sewald’s take care of the Guardians is for one 12 months and $6 million, with a $10 million mutual choice for 2026. The transfer solidifies the center a part of their bullpen, which already was top-of-the-line within the majors. With Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis anchoring the group, Sewald will occupy a lesser position than he’s held over the previous few years. That’s not a nasty factor for him, as he can work to return to kind with out the strain of getting to ship in high-leverage innings.
As velocities have elevated over time, and hitters have tailored to them, the margins for error for pitchers dwelling within the low-90s band have grown thinner and thinner. What we noticed from Sewald final season is an effective instance of what occurs when pitchers with such a profile lose even only one tick on their fastballs.
From 2021-23, a three-year stretch throughout which Sewald was one of many higher relievers in baseball, his four-seamer ranged from 92.2 mph to 92.5 mph. It was extraordinarily constant on that entrance. Then, in 2024, that quantity dropped right down to 91.4 mph on common, and with that, his efficiency additionally dropped. Here’s a fast abstract of how Sewald’s efficiency on his heater regressed final season:
Paul Sewald 4-Seamer, 2021-24
Season | xwOBA | Whiff% | Avg. Peak | Avg. Horizontal Launch |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | .269 | 33.0% | 2.77 | -3.83 |
2022 | .297 | 29.5% | 2.91 | -3.71 |
2023 | .264 | 28.4% | 2.90 | -3.70 |
2024 | .325 | 24.3% | 3.08 | -3.60 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
As his fastball velocity fell final 12 months, Sewald noticed a pointy lower in its effectiveness by each whiffs and general efficiency. This could possibly be associated to the pitch’s location and its launch angle; over the past 4 seasons, he’s been throwing his fastball progressively increased and better within the zone and releasing it nearer to the center of the pitcher’s mound. Mix that with a dip in velocity and, instantly, the pitch was simply extra regular than it had been prior to now.
One other downside for Sewald final 12 months was his sweeper, the pitch that was most accountable for turning him right into a high-leverage reliever upon becoming a member of the Mariners in 2021. His general numbers with it recommend it was nonetheless a weapon — he held opponents to a .196 common (.214 xBA) and a .214 wOBA (.258 xwOBA) in opposition to it — however a more in-depth look tells a unique story.
Throughout his aforementioned three-year stretch of excellence, he was comfy throwing his sweeper to each lefties and righties as a method to hold them off his fastball. In every of these three seasons, he threw his sweeper not less than 45% of the time in opposition to righties and not less than 35% of the time when dealing with lefties, and it was efficient in opposition to each side. That’s particularly vital as a result of Sewald is generally a two-pitch pitcher. Final 12 months, nevertheless, lefties teed off on his sweeper. Examine this out:
Paul Sewald Sweeper Splits, 2021-24
Season | Total xwOBA | xwOBA vs. RHH | xwOBA vs. LHH |
---|---|---|---|
2021 | .256 | .248 | .275 |
2022 | .204 | .201 | .209 |
2023 | .248 | .230 | .272 |
2024 | .258 | .218 | .369 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
So what modified? Maybe a few of it may be attributed to his diminished fastball velocity, which has minimize the rate hole between his fastball and sweeper to eight.3 mph, down from 9.7 in 2022. Besides, the velo distinction between the 2 pitches was additionally 8.3 mph in 2023, and that season each pitches had been nonetheless efficient in opposition to lefties and righties. The better concern right here appears to be the identical factor that threw off his fastball: his launch level, which additionally shifted extra towards the center of the mound when throwing his sweeper. Consequently, he struggled to command his sweeper in 2024, as you’ll be able to see in these two warmth maps. The primary one is from 2023, the second from 2024.
He began throwing the pitch extra within the center plate and fewer usually out of the zone. Even with lesser command, he may nonetheless hold righties at bay along with his sweeper as a result of the pitch breaks away from them. Towards lefties, although, he has much less margin for error along with his location. Sweepers that stay within the zone in opposition to lefties break properly into their bat paths. That’s not a recipe for achievement.
It’s price noting that a few of Sewald’s struggles in 2024 could possibly be injury-related, as he handled each neck and indirect accidents that might’ve precipitated his dip in velocity. These illnesses may additionally clarify his change in location and horizontal launch level, because the neck and indirect muscle mass are particularly vital for a pitcher’s upper-body mechanics. Sewald turns 35 in late Could, so a few of his diminished stuff could possibly be attributed to ageing, but when he’s wholesome, we must always anticipate him to have some type of rebound — even when he doesn’t get again to the height efficiency from his days with the Mariners.
Pressly Takes Over as Cubs Nearer
For a lot of the offseason, the Astros have been making an attempt to commerce Pressly to shed some wage, and as they revived their efforts to re-sign Alex Bregman final week, transferring Pressly appeared to turn into a good better precedence. After all, Houston has not but introduced again Bregman, however both manner, buying and selling Pressly gave the Astros extra monetary flexibility.
Houston despatched over $5.5 million to cowl Pressly’s wage this season, however nothing if his contract vests for 2026. The Cubs despatched again Juan Bello, a 20-year-old pitching prospect who was lately ranked no. 31 on the Cubs’ prospect listing. Bello is a 35+ FV beginning pitcher who, in line with our prospect writers Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice, “has sufficient projectability and current stuff to be forecast in a depth starter position, however he’ll have to harness his secondaries within the zone extra usually to constantly get extra superior hitters out and switch over a lineup.”
The 36-year-old Pressly had been a invaluable member of the bullpen because the Astros traded for him in late July 2018, and through the identical three-year stretch wherein Sewald shined, Pressly emerged as one of many prime closers within the American League. Nonetheless, Houston’s signing of Josh Hader earlier than final season relegated Pressly to a setup position and finally made him expendable this offseason. Astros GM Dana Brown stated earlier as we speak that the Hader signing and Pressly’s corresponding demotion within the bullpen pecking order precipitated a “fracture” in his and Pressly’s relationship. Now with the Cubs, Pressly is anticipated to return to closing video games.
Just like Sewald, Pressly is coming off a season with a notable lower in velocity, from 94.7 mph in 2023 to 93.8 mph final 12 months. His diminishing fastball didn’t precisely come as a surpsise, although. In 2022, batters posted a .402 xwOBA in opposition to his four-seamer, and in response, he minimize its utilization from 32.9% that 12 months right down to 23.1% in 2023. He leaned extra on his slider, which for years has been his finest pitch by run worth by a large margin. It’s odd, then, that he used his four-seamer extra usually than some other pitch in 2024. This pitch combine shift didn’t repay, as opponents slugged .500 in opposition to his heater with a .371 wOBA and a .365 xwOBA, in comparison with their .333 SLG, .276 wOBA, and .271 xwOBA in opposition to his slider. I think about Chicago will get him again to throwing primarily sliders once more subsequent season. For some extra context, here’s a three-year snapshot of Pressly’s Stuff+ and utilization for his three important pitches:
Ryan Pressly Stuff+ and Utilization, 2022-24
Season | Fastball Stuff+ | Fastball Utilization | Slider Stuff+ | Slider Utilization | Curveball Stuff+ | Curveball Utilization |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 122 | 32.9% | 169 | 36.7% | 128 | 26.9% |
2023 | 126 | 23.1% | 179 | 40.0% | 156 | 26.4% |
2024 | 99 | 33.3% | 152 | 28.9% | 130 | 24.9% |
Relievers who swap groups searching for bounce backs are at all times enjoyable tales to comply with. Each Sewald and Pressly are within the later phases of their careers however have a chance to be vital contributors on contending golf equipment. I’ll be taking note of any potential changes they make come spring time.