Even if you happen to’re not a Braves fan, you in all probability know the tough contours of what’s gone down for them this season. The preseason World Sequence favorites have had horrid harm luck all yr. The reigning MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr., scuffled for 50 video games earlier than tearing his ACL. Spencer Strider blew out his elbow. Austin Riley broke his hand, Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy every missed two months, Michael Harris II has been banged up; you’ve heard all of it earlier than. And the celebs who’ve been round haven’t performed as much as their potential. Solely Chris Sale and Marcell Ozuna, two past-their-prime retreads the Braves anticipated to be help items, have given the workforce a preventing likelihood.
That was an excellent description of the Braves for a part of the season, nevertheless it doesn’t seize their current type. Harris began the yr in a horrendous hunch; he has a 122 wRC+ for the reason that All-Star break. Riley introduced the facility earlier than his harm. Jorge Soler has been a pleasant addition. However maybe most significantly, Matt Olson is again.
Olson put up the perfect season of his profession in 2023, and it wasn’t significantly shut. He launched 54 homers, received on base at a career-best charge, and performed each sport en path to a gaudy 6.6 WAR. He completed fourth in MVP voting, his first top-five end, and led the majors in homers and RBI. Our projections thought he’d be among the finest hitters in baseball this yr, and so they weren’t alone.
The other occurred, kind of. He got here out of the gates slowly, with a 93 wRC+ within the first month. That’s hardly disqualifying – numerous nice gamers have unhealthy first months. Heck, Aaron Choose began sluggish this yr, and he’s on his solution to the perfect offensive season since Barry Bonds. However in contrast to Choose, Olson didn’t pull out of his hunch with just a few weeks of impressed play. As a substitute, the doldrums lingered. A tepid Might dragged his line as much as league common; the identical remained true by means of June. He slumped laborious heading into the All-Star break after which went 0-16 in his first 4 video games out of it.
The worst half about this hunch is that it felt all too explainable. How does Olson hunch? Precisely the way you’d count on him too – with too many strikeouts and never sufficient energy. His sport is about discovering a pitch to hit and sending it into the seats. What’s the perfect pitch to try this on? A fastball proper down the center.
Wouldn’t you recognize it, in 2023 Olson completely feasted on fastballs down the center. Practically 80% of his contact on these fastballs was 95 mph or more durable. He barreled up roughly 21% of them. His common – common! – exit velocity when he made contact with a fastball over the guts of the plate was 100.8 mph. I don’t at all times love common exit velocity as a stat, however three batters hit their middle-middle fastballs more durable final yr: Giancarlo Stanton, Choose, and Shohei Ohtani. I feel there’s some sign in there.
In 2024, although, Olson’s bat seemingly fell asleep. It wasn’t in the obvious of the way – his whiff charge on these crushable fastballs truly declined. However he hit fewer of them within the air, hit fewer of them laborious, and received worse outcomes. He launched 24 homers on middle-middle fastballs in 2023. On the All-Star break this yr, he had seven. In the meantime, his foul ball charge spiked above 50%, as in comparison with the low 40s and higher 30s he’d posted all through his profession beforehand. It’s cheap to surmise that his timing was off.
If you wish to be an excellent hitter, you must take the simple wins. Loads of the pitches that you simply see in each at-bat are going to be filthy, reality-warping sliders that slice off the periphery, or 100 mph fastballs that hug the highest of the zone. There’s no revenue available in setting your sights on these pitches. Certain, good hitters do higher on them, as a result of good hitters are simply higher. However everyone seems to be at their finest after they get simpler pitches to hit, and Olson was failing at that a part of the job.
There’s a sequence of failure that occurs right here. Fewer homers and extra foul balls imply extra early outs and likewise extra deep counts. These deep counts – and plenty of of them disadvantageous, provided that Olson was fouling off so many strikes as a substitute of placing them in play – meant loads of two-strike breaking balls. And wouldn’t you recognize it, Olson chased these on the highest charge of his profession within the first half, a whopping 44.4%.
Certain, these are disadvantageous pitches for anybody – the league chase charge in that spot is 40% – however Olson used to win in these conditions by taking usually sufficient to maintain pitchers trustworthy, then hitting for energy after they got here again within the zone. The little edges matter; his whiff charge ticked up alongside along with his chase charge, and immediately two strike counts have been unhealthy for him as a substitute of excellent.
That’s the simple story of what went improper. Just a few little edges eroded, just a few at-bats received extended and became strikeouts, and similar to that, Olson was a below-average hitter. Straightforward come, simple go; perhaps he simply received too previous. So now it’s time for the reveal: Olson has a 149 wRC+ for the reason that All-Star break. He’s hit 16 homers in 61 video games in that stretch, up from solely 13 in his first 95. He’s placing out much less and strolling extra. He’s barreling the ball up extra regularly and usually appears like his fearsome 2023 self as a substitute of the rickety 2024 model.
What’s modified? On the floor, it’s simple to say: Olson’s energy is again. All the things else flows from that. It doesn’t must be difficult; he had a .176 ISO earlier than the break and has a .284 mark since. However how did he do it? He didn’t begin swinging more durable; his bat velocity is definitely down barely within the second half. However I’ve an affordable rationalization, and it begins with these middle-middle fastballs.
Right here’s a twig chart of the place he hit them in 2023:
That is what you need from a man with plus uncooked energy. Olson’s swing is geared to torch these balls out to middle area. Generally he lucked into an reverse area shot when he was late. He pulled a pair down the road. Largely, although, his manufacturing on these most hittable pitches was all about hitting the ball laborious and to middle. In a few of his different finest years, his energy got here to the correct area energy alley, nevertheless it was at all times kind of up the center. Distinction that with what occurred within the first half of this yr:
That doesn’t appear to be the identical hitter. And whilst you may assume this isn’t an enormous deal, I feel it’s. In case you swing to hit a down-the-middle fastball out of the park to middle, you’ll probably be out in entrance of breaking balls and offspeed pitches; they get to house plate extra slowly, in any case. What occurs if you happen to’re slightly early out of your useless middle swing? You hit pull-side homers:
This complete chain wasn’t working early within the yr. Even when he was hitting fastballs, he was largely out entrance and pulling. That made his timing on all the things else borderline unworkable. Take a look at his manufacturing on secondary pitches, with this yr break up out into halves. I took the freedom of highlighting the worst end in every column in pink:
Matt Olson vs. Secondary Pitches
| Yr | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% | HR/Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 32.1% | 16.4% | 48.4% | 8.8% |
| 2019 | 28.5% | 15.5% | 45.7% | 9.9% |
| 2020 | 26.9% | 9.8% | 44.3% | 8.1% |
| 2021 | 26.9% | 10.9% | 43.2% | 7.6% |
| 2022 | 30.0% | 12.1% | 47.5% | 7.6% |
| 2023 | 30.6% | 18.4% | 44.7% | 13.2% |
| 2024, H1 | 33.9% | 4.5% | 31.8% | 4.5% |
| 2024, H2 | 29.0% | 13.7% | 39.7% | 6.8% |
Now, that does make 2023 appear to be fairly the outlier, however that’s positive; I didn’t count on Olson to be that good yearly. However the first half of 2024 was a transparent outlier in the other way. He received away from the method that had labored so effectively, and his outcomes took a success throughout the board. However as you’ll be able to see from his second-half numbers, he’s again to mashing breaking balls once more. In a supremely unsurprising associated growth, his house runs on fastballs are headed out to middle:
In order that’s it, proper? Olson began attempting to drag the ball and received horrible, after which he went again to hitting fastballs up the center and have become nice once more. I imply, positive, however that doesn’t inform the entire story. One factor I neglected on function: Olson was getting supremely unfortunate early within the yr. Take balls hit 100 mph or more durable within the air, for instance. Within the final 4 years mixed, he hit .748 with a 2.072 slug on these. He posted a 1.132 wOBA. Within the first half, he was right down to .626 with a 1.455 slug, good for a .859 wOBA. Method worse! However his xwOBA declined from 1.077 to .978, a far much less extreme drop. He misplaced about 300 factors of wOBA and 100 of xwOBA.
In fact, xwOBA doesn’t take horizontal (“spray”) angle into consideration, solely how laborious the ball was hit and at what vertical angle. Might Olson have been constantly hitting the ball to the improper a part of the park, and thus “fooling” xwOBA? Not going. In case you’ll keep in mind, he was pulling too many fastballs, which gave the impression to be the basis of his points. Pulled balls within the air are inclined to outperform xwOBA as a result of the fences are nearer within the corners. Olson simply caught some unhealthy breaks. Within the first half of the season, Francisco Lindor led baseball in 100-mph-plus line drives that have been caught by infielders, with six; Olson was second with 5. They’ve two apiece since then. Generally you’re simply snakebitten for a month or two.
The purpose of that is that the query of whether or not Olson was getting unfortunate or slumping isn’t truly a binary. It was each. I can’t inform you precisely why Olson misplaced his timing. Hitting is extremely difficult, and any variety of changes or counter-adjustments might have knocked issues off kilter. However mix that misplaced timing with just a few scorched outs, and immediately he’s placing up a median batting line. Appropriate the timing and even out the luck, and it’ll immediately appear to be he went from unplayable again to elite. However it was nearly the identical Matt Olson the entire time. What a wild sport.
